Re: Bankruptcy Filings Rise

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I admire the optimism of both Jiff and rrr to predict the future of
bankruptcy. What do we really know? The practice area has now
dropped off a cliff in terms of business. Will this trend
continue? The U.S. household savings rate is the lowest ever.
Housing prices are the highest ever, and oil is now over $60 per
barrel. Add into that an aging population, foreseeably massive tax
increases both at the federal and state level, and the financial
picture darkens.

Short-term, our business looks bad; over the longer haul, one has
to think that there's hope. I am told that the Chinese character
for "crisis" and "opportunity" is the same.

We are diversifying over the short-term, and keeping an eye on the
long-term opportunity for consumer liquidations that is sure to
arise in the deepening morass that is our national economy.

On 3/28/06, Jiff wrote:
> I admire your optimism, but I just don't see it that way. The
> problem I see with your analysis is that you assume debtors are
> actually going to defend against collection suits. In reality,
> they don't, not in large enough numbers to make it a viable
> practice add on. As far as independent paralegals, they never
> really took hold in my area, and as far as easy, cheap work,
> attorneys were more than happy to do it. Client comes to me and
> offers $400-500 for about 2 hours (at most) of my time for a
> simple 7, and I take it happily over and over again. Well, I
> used to, under the old law. I share the sentiment voiced by
> others on this board that bankruptcy's glory days are behind
> us. It was the easiest money I ever made, now, back to those
> pesky divorce clients!
> On 3/28/06, rrr wrote:
>> On 3/28/06, Jiff wrote:
>>>
>>> Read these thoroughly. Bankruptcy filings are "rising", but
>>> from virtually nothing. The current and projected caseload
>>> for the next twelve months will not support the current
>>> number of bankruptcy attorneys. 2/3 of the bankruptcy
>>> attorneys will go out of business in the next year, in my
>>> view.
>>
>> I think its going to push the Independent Paralegals out of
>> Bankruptcy business since they were the ones doing most of the
>> fast & easy petitions (at least they were the ones here in
>> California). I've already seen it in the local advertising.
>> Not a Paralegal advertising for BK at all. The Attorney
>> who "occassionally" did a bankrutpcy will no longer do them,
>> and the mills will have to change their methods, but the core
>> Debtor-Consumer Attorneys are going to come out ahead. And we
>> haven't even started to see the fallout from the slow down in
>> real estate and consequences from aggressive mortgage lending
>> practices. When the foreclosures start to hit in a stagnant
>> market, it will be time to feed again. Not to mention there
>> will be more Collections Defense Litigation from those who
>> can't Chapter 7 because of the Means Test and lack the
>> financial stability to Chapter 13, and have no foreclosure to
>> prevent. This new law may actually be great news for Debtor-
>> side Practitioners after we shake off the immediate mental
>> shock and adapt to the change. Time to be patient and time to
>> be visionary, the greedy shylocks might have just made us all
>> rich.